By 2020, the U.S. government predicts that it will be short between 800,000 and one million nurses. (Close to 117,000 short in California alone.)
Before that – 2015 – the U.S. Department of Health projects that 400,000 new nurses will be needed just to fill vacancies left by retirees.
The problems
While lucrative incentives are being offered for Americans to enter nursing college and for existing nurses to go back to school to become nursing college faculty, a longer-living, less-healthy population is already starting to weigh on the American healthcare system.
The up-side
Already strained by an out-of-control deficit of trained nurses, stressful shifts for the nurses who are holding down the fort, and – unbeknownst to many – a shortage of teachers to open-up class sizes at nursing colleges, the deal has never been sweeter for anyone with the smarts to make the grade.
The trouble spots
Not surprisingly, Alaska has the largest nursing shortfall as a percentage of nursing positions left vacant: Beautiful as the endless summers and Northern Lights of the winter are, not every nurse wants to make the trek up to the 49th state: Only 58 percent of nursing positions there are currently filled…And a paltry 40 per cent are expected to be filled in 2015.
More surprisingly, Hawaii is also facing one of the nation’s highest vacancy rates for nursing positions. So too is Connecticut.
Overall, California is short the largest number of overall nurses: nearly 48,000 right now, a projected 81,000 in 2015 and as many as 116,600 by 2020.
Not far behind those numbers are Florida and – to a lesser extent – Georgia and New Jersey.
Flaws in the data
What’s even more troubling is that state-level data on the nursing shortage isn’t even accurate all the time: Vermont used government-gathered data to plan ahead, thought they had all the nurses they needed, and ended up with a sizable shortage (PDF).
The numbers are daunting; For example, in order to meet the projected future health care needs of the state, New Jersey needs to triple the annual number of nursing school graduates from 2000 per year to 6,000 per year.
What are the solutions?
Government studies have proposed everything from asking existing nurses to delay retirement for up to four years, increasing the number of nursing college teaching staff, and inviting more nurses from other countries to fill vacant jobs.
Projected FTE RN Supply under Alternative Wage Growth Scenarios
But perhaps most interesting option for anyone considering a career in nursing is a government study that explores the notion of raising nursing salaries nationwide an additional 1-3 per cent. Such a move would theoretically increase the number of people graduating from nursing college, though still not quite enough to meet demand.
A silver lining, if you’re interested…
Thanks to upcoming recruitment and retention programs as well as a number of educational incentives, becoming a nurse in America over the next few years will likely be cheaper than is has been in a while, and working as a nurse will likely be more lucrative than its ever been.
If undecided college-bound teens are up for it, they may just find the recession-proof jobs they’ve been looking for.
(Interested in seeing what states have the highest demand? Take a look at the projected numbers below…)
State-by-state numbers:
RN supply and demand, 2010 and 2015
(Yellow highlighting denotes largest supply gaps by %
Green highlighting denotes largest overall supply gaps by number)
| State |
2010 |
2015 |
||||||
|
Supply |
Demand |
Supply – Demand |
Supply ÷ Demand |
Supply |
Demand |
Supply – Demand |
Supply ÷ |
|
| AK |
3,200 |
5,500 |
-2,300 |
58% |
2,500 |
6,100 |
-3,600 |
41% |
| AL |
36,600 |
36,800 |
-200 |
99% |
38,200 |
40,300 |
-2,100 |
95% |
| AR |
19,300 |
22,000 |
-2,700 |
88% |
19,800 |
24,300 |
-4,500 |
81% |
| AZ |
30,700 |
43,200 |
-12,500 |
71% |
30,500 |
48,500 |
-18,000 |
63% |
| CA |
153,300 |
200,900 |
-47,600 |
76% |
148,200 |
228,900 |
-80,700 |
65% |
| CO |
27,200 |
38,100 |
-10,900 |
71% |
25,100 |
42,500 |
-17,400 |
59% |
| CT |
22,900 |
34,000 |
-11,100 |
67% |
19,900 |
36,600 |
-16,700 |
54% |
| DC |
6,500 |
9,500 |
-3,000 |
68% |
5,900 |
10,200 |
-4,300 |
58% |
| DE |
6,300 |
7,600 |
-1,300 |
83% |
6,100 |
8,100 |
-2,000 |
75% |
| FL |
112,000 |
144,700 |
-32,700 |
77% |
110,200 |
164,300 |
-54,100 |
67% |
| GA |
48,200 |
64,600 |
-16,400 |
75% |
45,300 |
71,600 |
-26,300 |
63% |
| HI |
7,900 |
12,400 |
-4,500 |
64% |
8,100 |
13,900 |
-5,800 |
58% |
| IA |
26,600 |
30,000 |
-3,400 |
89% |
26,000 |
31,800 |
-5,800 |
82% |
| ID |
7,400 |
8,200 |
-800 |
90% |
7,300 |
9,200 |
-1,900 |
79% |
| IL |
85,600 |
94,900 |
-9,300 |
90% |
81,900 |
101,300 |
-19,400 |
81% |
| IN |
41,600 |
49,800 |
-8,200 |
84% |
40,400 |
53,500 |
-13,100 |
76% |
| KS |
22,100 |
23,100 |
-1,000 |
96% |
21,800 |
24,900 |
-3,100 |
88% |
| KY |
34,700 |
33,500 |
1,200 |
104% |
35,500 |
36,300 |
-800 |
98% |
| LA |
37,200 |
37,100 |
100 |
100% |
39,100 |
40,600 |
-1,500 |
96% |
| MA |
60,100 |
76,200 |
-16,100 |
79% |
56,000 |
81,700 |
-25,700 |
69% |
| MD |
35,600 |
42,600 |
-7,000 |
84% |
33,800 |
46,100 |
-12,300 |
73% |
| ME |
11,600 |
14,100 |
-2,500 |
82% |
11,100 |
15,300 |
-4,200 |
73% |
| MI |
72,000 |
75,100 |
-3,100 |
96% |
68,900 |
79,600 |
-10,700 |
87% |
| MN |
41,800 |
46,200 |
-4,400 |
90% |
41,200 |
50,400 |
-9,200 |
82% |
| MO |
45,700 |
58,600 |
-12,900 |
78% |
44,200 |
63,100 |
-18,900 |
70% |
| MS |
22,600 |
23,100 |
-500 |
98% |
23,600 |
25,400 |
-1,800 |
93% |
| MT |
6,500 |
7,000 |
-500 |
93% |
6,300 |
7,800 |
-1,500 |
81% |
| NC |
67,400 |
75,500 |
-8,100 |
89% |
68,600 |
83,700 |
-15,100 |
82% |
| ND |
5,800 |
6,700 |
-900 |
87% |
5,800 |
7,300 |
-1,500 |
79% |
| NE |
14,700 |
17,100 |
-2,400 |
86% |
14,900 |
18,500 |
-3,600 |
81% |
| NH |
9,300 |
12,600 |
-3,300 |
74% |
8,800 |
13,800 |
-5,000 |
64% |
| NJ |
55,000 |
74,600 |
-19,600 |
74% |
50,500 |
80,400 |
-29,900 |
63% |
| NM |
11,000 |
14,100 |
-3,100 |
78% |
11,300 |
15,900 |
-4,600 |
71% |
| NV |
9,200 |
13,300 |
-4,100 |
69% |
8,700 |
14,700 |
-6,000 |
59% |
| NY |
142,300 |
163,800 |
-21,500 |
87% |
137,400 |
174,000 |
-36,600 |
79% |
| OH |
88,900 |
101,000 |
-12,100 |
88% |
85,500 |
107,300 |
-21,800 |
80% |
| OK |
21,500 |
22,000 |
-500 |
98% |
22,100 |
24,300 |
-2,200 |
91% |
| OR |
22,400 |
27,700 |
-5,300 |
81% |
21,100 |
31,100 |
-10,000 |
68% |
| PA |
99,200 |
120,300 |
-21,100 |
82% |
90,600 |
127,200 |
-36,600 |
71% |
| RI |
9,000 |
12,000 |
-3,000 |
75% |
8,400 |
12,800 |
-4,400 |
66% |
| SC |
25,900 |
31,100 |
-5,200 |
83% |
26,200 |
34,400 |
-8,200 |
76% |
| SD |
7,900 |
8,100 |
-200 |
98% |
7,900 |
8,700 |
-800 |
91% |
| TN |
42,800 |
61,300 |
-18,500 |
70% |
41,800 |
67,800 |
-26,000 |
62% |
| TX |
118,700 |
160,600 |
-41,900 |
74% |
119,000 |
179,900 |
-60,900 |
66% |
| UT |
14,100 |
15,600 |
-1,500 |
90% |
14,900 |
17,500 |
-2,600 |
85% |
| VA |
47,600 |
58,600 |
-11,000 |
81% |
46,300 |
64,300 |
-18,000 |
72% |
| VT |
4,800 |
5,400 |
-600 |
89% |
4,400 |
5,800 |
-1,400 |
76% |
| WA |
37,300 |
46,100 |
-8,800 |
81% |
35,100 |
52,100 |
-17,000 |
67% |
| WI |
43,300 |
42,800 |
500 |
101% |
42,200 |
46,300 |
-4,100 |
91% |
| WV |
14,600 |
13,900 |
700 |
105% |
14,600 |
14,700 |
-100 |
99% |
| WY |
3,300 |
4,500 |
-1,200 |
73% |
3,300 |
5,100 |
-1,800 |
65% |
| U.S.a |
1,941,200 |
2,347,000 |
-405,800 |
83% |
1,886,100 |
2,569,800 |
-683,700 |
73% |
a Due to rounding, national totals might fail to equal the sum across states.
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
I may be uneducated in the matter, but from all the nurses I’ve talked to they say it’s damn difficult to get a job, especially in a hospital. The reason being, supposedly, are budget cuts. More accurately, the hospitals are too cheap to hire more nurses since they don’t want to pay more salaries, then overwork the staffed nurses by making them take on a more than reasonable number of patients. It’s one big capitalistic crock. And what with the “shortage of nurses” you’d think they’d make nursing school a little more affordable. My friend just graduated out of an LVN program and is now 60,000 in the hole in debt. This whole healthcare system needs some overhauling, and NOT Obama’s kind. That’s my 2 cents, up to the rest of the world to make it worth a dime.
Niel
You are indeed well informed and astute in your comment contrary to your disclaimer
. It is another confounding aspect of US healthcare – though a significant chunk of the jobs created in the last 12 months have been in this sector, trained nurses are finding it difficult to get jobs given budget cuts. Alongside the shortage, that is bizarre but the only hope is that hiring will increase as the economy progresses and more so when there is some clarity as to the reforms.